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DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
Lines of Navigation | Monthly Portfolio Update - July 202
Our little systems have their day; They have their day and cease to be - Tennyson, In Memoriam A.H.H. This is my forty-fourth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund - $716 680
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund - $41 103
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund - $77 788
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund - $111 667
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) - $202 336
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) - $54 872
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) - $230 058
Telstra shares (TLS) -$1 785
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) - $6 449
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) - $5 316
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) - $124 756
Secured physical gold - $20 070
Ratesetter (P2P lending) - $9 881
Bitcoin - $173 010
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) - $17 258
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) -$2 619
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) - $4 471
Total portfolio value: $1 800 119 (+$34 376 or 1.9%) Asset allocation
Australian shares - 41.1%
Global shares- 22.2%
Emerging market shares - 2.2%
International small companies - 2.9%
Total international shares - 27.3%
Total shares - 68.4% (6.6% under)
Total property securities - 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds - 4.5%
International bonds - 9.1%
Total bonds - 13.6% (1.4% under)
Gold - 8.0%
Bitcoin - 9.6%
Gold and alternatives - 17.7% (7.7% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The portfolio has substantially increased this month, continuing the recovery in portfolio value since March. The strong portfolio growth of over $34 000, or 1.9 per cent, returns the value of the portfolio close to that achieved at the end of February this year. [Chart] This month there was minimal movement in the value of Australian and global equity holdings, There was, however, a significant lift of around 6 per cent in the value of gold exchange traded fund units, as well as a rise in the value of Bitcoin holdings. These movements have pushed the value of gold holdings to their highest level so far on the entire journey. Their total value has approximately doubled since the original major purchases across 2009 to 2015. For most of the past year gold has functioned as a portfolio stabiliser, having a negative correlation to movements in Australian equities (of around -0.3 to -0.4). As low and negative bond rates spread across the world, however, the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, and its potential diversification benefits loom larger. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio also continued to fall beneath the target allocation, making this question of what represents a defensive (or negatively correlated to equity) asset far from academic. This steady fall is a function of the slow maturing of Ratesetter loans, which were largely made between 2015 and 2017. Ratesetter has recently advised of important changes to its market operation, and placed a fixed maximum cap on new loan rates. By replacing market set rates with maximum rates, the peer-to-peer lending platform appears to be shifting to more of a 'intermediated' role in which higher past returns (of around 8 to 9 per cent) will now no longer be possible. [Chart] The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars. Consistent with this, investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) using Selfwealth. This has been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares. Fathoming out: franking credits and portfolio distributions Earlier last month I released a summary of portfolio income over the past half year. This, like all before it, noted that the summary was prepared on a purely 'cash' basis, reflecting dividends actually paid into a bank account, and excluding consideration of franking credits. Franking credits are credits for company tax paid at the company level, which can be passed to individual shareholders, reducing their personal tax liability. They are not cash, but for a personal investor with tax liabilities they can have equivalent value. This means that comparing equity returns to other investments without factoring these credits can produce a distorted picture of an investor's final after-tax return. In past portfolio summaries I have noted an estimate for franking credits in footnotes, but updating the value for this recently resulted in a curiosity about the overall significance of this neglected element of my equity returns. This neglect resulted from my perception earlier in the journey that they represented a marginal and abstract factor, which could effectively be assumed away for the sake of simplicity in reporting. This is not a wholly unfair view, in the sense that income physically received and able to be spent is something definably different in kind than a notional 'pre-payment' credit for future tax costs. Yet, as the saying goes, because the prospect of personal tax is as certain as extinction from this world, in some senses a credit of this kind can be as valuable as a cash distribution. Restoring the record: trends and drivers of franking credits To collect a more accurate picture of the trends and drivers of franking credits I relied on a few sources - tax statements, records and the automatic franking credit estimates that the portfolio tracking site Sharesight generates. The chart below sets out both the level and major different sources of franking credits received over the past eleven years. [Chart] From this chart some observations can be made.
The level of franking credits has grown substantially over the past ten years - from a total of under $1 000 per year to around $8 000 annually.
Recent years have seen a particularly high accrual of franking credits - such that by value, over half of the total value of franking credits has been received over the past three financial years.
These credits now constitute a significant element in total realised returns - in the last financial year the value of franking credits represented a 12 per cent boost to the total level of cash distributions, and over the past two years they have contributed around $8 000 each year to the total level of after-tax returns. This is the equivalent of the portfolio paying nearly $700 per month in tax liabilities.
The key reason for the rapid growth over the recent decade has been the increased investment holdings in Australian equities. As part of the deliberate rebalancing towards Australian shares across the past two years, these holdings have expanded. The chart below sets out the total value of Australian shares held over the comparable period. [Chart] As an example, at the beginning of this record Australian equities valued at around $276 000 were held. Three years later, the holding were nearly three times larger. The phase of consistently increasing the Australian equities holding to meet its allocated weighting is largely complete. This means that the period of rapid growth seen in the past few years is unlikely to repeat. Rather, growth will revert to be in proportion to total portfolio growth. Close to cross-over: the credit card records One of the most powerful initial motivators to reach financial independence was the concept of the 'cross over' point in Vicki Robins and Joe Dominguez's Your Money or Your Life. This was the point at which monthly expenses are exceeded by investment income. One of the metrics I have traced is this 'cross-over' point in relation to recorded credit card expenses. And this point is now close indeed. Expenditures on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. The three year rolling average of monthly credit card spending remains at its lowest point over the period of the journey. Distributions on the same basis now meet over 99 per cent of card expenses - with the gap now the equivalent of less than $50 per month. [Chart] The period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent form of financial independence has continued. The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the the extent to which to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month. [Chart] An alternative way to view the same data is to examine the degree to which total expenses (i.e. fixed payments not made on credit card added to monthly credit card expenses) are met by distributions received. An updated version of this is seen in the chart below. [Chart] Interestingly, on a trend basis, this currently identifies a 'crossing over' point of trend distributions fully meeting total expenditure from around November 2019. This is not conclusive, however, as the trend curve is sensitive to the unusual COVID-19 related observations of the first half of this year, and could easily shift further downward if normal expense patterns resume. One issue this analysis raises is what to do with the 'credit card purchases' measure reported below. This measure is designed to provide a stylised benchmark of how close the current portfolio is to a target of generating the income required to meet an annual average credit card expenditure of $71 000. The problem with this is that continued falling credit card spending means that average credit card spending is lower than that benchmark for all time horizons - measured as three and four year averages, or in fact taken as a whole since 2013. So the set benchmark may, if anything, be understating actual progress compared the graphs and data above by not reflecting changing spending levels. In the past I have addressed this trend by reducing the benchmark. Over coming months, or perhaps at the end of the year, I will need to revisit both the meaning, and method, of setting this measure. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 82.6% 111.5% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 100.7% 136.0% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.0% Summary One of the most challenging aspects of closing in on a fixed numerical target for financial independence with risk assets still in place is that the updrafts and downdrafts of market movements can push the goal further away, or surprisingly close. There have been long period of the journey where the total value of portfolio has barely grown, despite regular investments being made. As an example, the portfolio ended 2018 lower than it started the year. The past six months have been another such period. This can create a sense of treading water. Yet amidst the economic devastation affecting real lives and businesses, this is an extremely fortunate position to be in. Australia and the globe are set to experience an economic contraction far more severe than the Global Financial Crisis, with a lesser capacity than previously for interest rates to cushion the impact. Despite similar measures being adopted by governments to address the downturn, it is not clear whether these are fit for purpose. Asset allocation in this environment - of being almost suspended between two realities - is a difficult problem. The history of markets can tell us that just when assets seem most 'broken', they can produce outsized returns. Yet the problem remains that far from being surrounded by broken markets, the proliferation appears to be in bubble-like conditions. This recent podcast discussion with the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer provided a useful historical context to current financial conditions this month. One of the themes of the conversation was 'thinking the unthinkable', such as a return of inflation. Similar, this Hoover Institute video discussion, with a 'Back from the future' premise, provides some entertaining, informed and insightful views on the surprising and contingent nature of what we know to be true. Some of our little systems may well have had their day, but what could replace them remains obscured to any observer. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
I am the creator of BitcoinDuLiban.org. I am on a mission to educate Lebanese about the importance and usefulness of Bitcoins in their lives. AMA
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin (₿) (ticker BTC)is an open source cryptocurrency. It is a decentralized cryptographic currency without a central bank or single administrator in control that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for 3rd person in between like bank, or payment processor or institution all transaction processing and verification is carried out collectively by the network. Find out more at http://www.bitcoinduliban.org/
Why Bitcoin is the future?
Bitcoin emerged in 2009 as more economies across the world started losing trust in the current banking model. Institutions that have been around longer than ourselves have changed very little throughout our lifetime. Not only does the lack of trust, and stagnant change of banks allow Bitcoin to thrive, but also the possibility of eliminating inflation. Bitcoin saw the opportunity to take the power out of the institutions and provide a better service, and the people responded. Bitcoin operates universally, meaning for the first time, there is a possibility of a global currency. With truly international currency possibilities for global economic growth, social equality, self-sovereignty is endless.
Why Bitcoin and not others?
It is a very good question, there at the moment of writing over 2000 projects and “coins” that emerged after Bitcoin. Many of them claim to be faster, better and more flexible than Bitcoin however very few have withstood the test of time or delivered their proposed product. The basic fundamentals of Bitcoin’s principle monetary policy are unprecedented, and by now, it is impossible to replicate its level of decentralization or network security, which is powered by a computer network as powerful as almost 12 trillion Intel Core i7 processors. Bitcoin also has the largest social / community strength. I would HIGHLY advise against investing or getting dragged into any project that claims superiority, I have single rule : if it says it's better than Bitcoin then its what we call “scam-coin” you will only get pulled in and lose your bitcoin/usd value causing a lot of pain and sadness . Sit down, read, learn and be patient, you will not miss out on anything over night and if something is rising in price quickly most likely it will crash as fast.
Does bitcoin have an applicable use in daily life or is it only for holding for future gains?
Bitcoin has taken over the cryptocurrency market. It’s the largest and most well-known digital currency today. Many large companies are accepting Bitcoin as a legitimate source of funds, you can use your Bitcoin at but not limited to : KFC, Burger King, Microsoft, AT&T , Expedia, Subway, Twitch, Virgin Galactic and many more just look it up. You can look up merc and services at https://spendabit.co/ So if you are living abroad, you can use your bitcoin just like any other known currency in addition there are Debit cards in collaboration with VISA network offers that are backed by Bitcoin making you able to pay with it anywhere in the world just with a swipe or tap.
As Lebanese in Lebanon, how can I buy or sell bitcoin ?
In Lebanon unfortunately we can not use our banking system to purchase bitcoin, there was a time where rain.bh an UAE based exchange was accepting Lebanese Cards, till it was stopped but give it a try we weren’t able to confirm all cards. Therefore most common way to buy bitcoin in lebanon is using P2P which is person to person exchange, this can be through an international website such as localbitcoins.com or hodlhodl.com , all you gotta do is find a sell offer initiate transaction with seller , send him his payment using WesterUnion or Moneygram and once the seller receives payment your bitcoins will be released but make sure you use escrow service which ensures safety of your transaction therefore bitcoins you are buying are frozen for the seller and he can not retrieve them unless you fail to pay or run out of time window to pay. Another p2p way is through local bitcoin communities , there are plenty of traders willing to exchange with you however always ask for the reputation of the seller inside a group and never respond to private messages unless it is a confirmed reliable trader just to avoid losing and being scammed. Feel free to find out more about how to buy in Lebanon at http://www.bitcoinduliban.org/
If I have a bank account outside Lebanon, can I use bitcoin to transfer money from Lebanon to my bank account outside?
It is possible to transfer Bitcoin to an international account in the USA or EU for example, you would need to use recognized exchanges such as coinbase.com kraken.com and many others. It would be as simple as sending BTC to your coinbase account, converting to USD and withdrawing it to your account. However you must take few precautions, if you are sending a significant amount of BTC and converting it to USD you will need some kind of proof that these funds are yours otherwise you might get investigated for money laundering. So is it convenient to send ? I do not think so, if you managed to get what we call now in Lebanon “ Fresh USD” it would be much less of a hassle to simply initiate an international transaction.
Why would I want to send Bitcoin to my family or friends in Lebanon ?
This is where I believe BTC can shine for us, you can use exchanges as coinbase,kraken or any prefered place to purchase some bitcoin that can be transferred to your family wallet within minutes. Your family or friends can exchange bitcoin or part that is needed with local traders to LBP at desired exchange rate therefore you are not forced to exchange at rates given by WesterUnion, after which they will be able to do their daily purchases and mitigate inflation rates to some extent. You can send as little as $1 and the transaction costs less than $1 for any amount.
Why is the Bitcoin price so volatile ?
Indeed it can be, sudden swings of 20% both ways are considered normal if you look at daily data, however bitcoin since 2009 had only one trend which is upward, 80% chance is if you bought BTC at any moment in past 2 years is that you are on break even or positive not loss. Feel free to try this exercise by going to https://dcabtc.com/
Should I invest?
NO. Now since we got the short version of this, let me elaborate. By the end of the day it is a new class of an asset, the price is still in the discovery phase and it could cause a lot of pain and sleepless nights if you invest more than you can chew to possibly lose. No one can advice you what to do with your money and how to position them, however i highly encourage to read, educate yourself on money before investing in BTC a good start would be https://bitcoinduliban.org. Please ask more knowledgeable bitcoin users and double check sources , once you feel confident enough that you understand this monetary system you can try dipping your toes with small amounts and build your position from there. Just stay away from quick gains schemes such as “online mining” “cloud mining” and anything that offers 100% returns in a very short time, if it's too good to be true then it's a scam.
Scams, BE AWARE.
Due to our difficult situation we are being targeted by constant advertisement of potential new solutions using “newly developed cryptocurrencies“ , unfortunately such new technology does not exist and they are trying to take advantage of us by promising fake solutions. Even Bitcoin can not provide you with a solution to your hard worked money being inaccessible in any Lebanese bank. Here are few typical scam msgs:
“A new amazing great best investment …”
“Start mining Bitcoin now … just send us xx initial investment”
‘XX is a new digital currency being developed by a group of Stanford PhDs”
“Elon musk give away - Send us 0.1 BTC or other crypto to get 10x the amount, NOW”
“Apple Bitcoin Give away, watch now”
“200% gains with mining, just set up a node”
“This New amazing crypto will do 100x do not miss out like you did with Bitcoin”
“Download this X wallet and we will give you 5 BTC for free !”
https://preview.redd.it/dju4oz1g16c51.jpg?width=2400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe57edcd81ffa31bff95fe3026055020f7720dce Cryptocurrencies have now become a buzz word. Despite the resilience that it faced initially, cryptocurrencies have come a long way. There are a total of around 5000 cryptocurrencies circulating in the market. If you plan to make a career in this domain, you need to run through the following questions. 1. What is a cryptocurrency? Cryptocurrency is a digital currency that is transacted on a distributed ledger platform or decentralized platform or Blockchain. Any third party does not govern it, and the transaction takes place between peer-to-peer. 2. When was the first Cryptocurrency introduced? The first Cryptocurrency or Bitcoin was introduced in the year 2009. 3. Who created Cryptocurrency? Satoshi Nakamoto gave the first Cryptocurrency. The white paper for the same was given in 2008 and a computer program in 2009. 4. What are the top three cryptocurrencies? The following are the three cryptocurrencies: • Bitcoin (BTC) $128bn. • Ethereum (ETH) $19.4bn. • XRP (XRP) $8.22bn. 5. Where can you store Cryptocurrency? Cryptocurrencies are stored in a digital wallet, and this is accessible via public and private keys. A public key is the address of your wallet, and the private key is the one that helps you in executing the transaction. 6. Which is the safest wallet for Cryptocurrency? The most secured wallet for Cryptocurrency is a hardware wallet. It is not connected to the internet, and thus it is free from a hacking attack. It is also known as a cold wallet. 7. From where I can purchase cryptocurrencies? The easiest way to buy Cryptocurrency is via crypto exchange. You can several crypto exchanges like Coinbase, Bitbuy, CHANGENow, Kraken etc. 8. What are the ten popular crypto exchanges? The following are the best ten popular crypto exchange:
9. What are the key features of Blockchain? We all know that Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency runs on the Blockchain platform, which gives it some additional features like decentralization, transparency, faster speed, immutability and anonymity. 10. What is AltCoin? It means Alternative Coin. All the cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin are alternative coins. Similar to Bitcoin, AltCoins are not regulated by any bank. The market governs them. 11. Are cryptocurrency sites regulated? Most cryptocurrency websites are not regulated. 12. How are Cryptocurrency and Blockchain related? Blockchain platform aids cryptocurrency transactions, which makes use of authentication and encryption techniques. Cryptography enables technology for Cryptocurrency, thus ensuring secure transactions. 13. What is a nonce? The mining process works on the pattern of validating transactions by solving a mathematical puzzle called proof-of-work. The latter determine a number or nonce along with a cryptographic hash algorithm to produce a hash value lower than a predefined target. The nonce is a random value used to vary the value of hash so that the final hash value meets the hash conditions. 14. How is Cryptocurrency different from other forms of payment? Cryptocurrency runs on Blockchain technology, which gives it an advantage of immutability, cryptography, and decentralization. All the payments are recorded on the DLT, which is accessible from any part of the world. Moreover, it keeps the identity of the user anonymous. 15. Which is the best Cryptocurrency? Several cryptocurrencies have surged into the market, and you can choose any of these. The best way to choose the right cryptocurrencies is to look at its market value and assess its performance. Some of the prominent choices are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, XRP etc. 16. What is the worst thing that can happen while using Cryptocurrency? One of the worst things could be you losing your private keys. These are the passwords that secure your wallet, and once they are lost, you cannot recover them. 17. What is the private key and public key? Keys secure your cryptocurrency wallet; these are public key and private key. The public key is known to all, like your bank account number, on the hand, the private key is the password which protects your wallet and is only known to you. 18. How much should one invest in Cryptocurrency? Well, investing in Cryptocurrency is a matter of choice. You can study how the market is performing, and based on the best performing cryptocurrency, you can choose to invest. If you are new to this, then it’s advisable that you must start small. 19. From where can one buy Bitcoin using Fiat currency? Two of the popular choices that you have are Coinbase and Binance, where you can purchase Cryptocurrency using fiat currency. 20. Are the coins safe on exchanges? All the exchanges have a high level of security. Besides, these are regularly updated to meet the security requirements, but it’s not advisable to leave your coins on them since they are prone to attack. Instead, you can choose a hard wallet to store your cryptocurrencies, which are considered the safest. 21. What determines the price of cryptocurrencies? The price of cryptocurrencies is determined by the demand and supply in the market. Besides, how the market is performing also determines the price of cryptocurrencies. 22. What are some of the prominent cryptocurrencies terminologies? There are jargons which are continuously used by people using cryptocurrencies are: DYOR: Do Your Own Research Dapps: Decentralized Applications Spike: Shapr increase in the price of the Cryptocurrency Pump: Manipulated increase in the price of a cryptocurrency Dump: Shapr decline in the price of Cryptocurrency 23. How can I check the value of cryptocurrencies? Various platforms will give you an update on the price of cryptocurrencies. You can keep a tab on them and check the pricing of cryptocurrencies. 24. What are the advantages of using digital currencies? There are various advantages like you are saved from double-spending, the transactions are aster and secure. Moreover, digital currencies now have global acceptance. 25. What is the difference between cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies? Cryptocurrencies are digital currencies which run on the Blockchain platform and are not governed by any government agencies, while the fiat currencies are the ones which are governed by authorities and government. Conclusion- This was all the FAQs pertaining to cryptocurrency, for more such information keep coming back to Blockchain Council.
﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
Here is an article by an author named Adnan about why Get Ticketing will explode: https://medium.com/@adnanzzz/the-bullish-case-of-get-protocol-451ad6059f2d Below is the same article copied and pasted for those who are too lazy to click the link. However, I recommend reading the article from the link instead as it has a lot of graphs, links, and pictures that gives a much fuller picture.
"GET protocol — the sleeping blockchain giant Bear with me as I try to explain why the GET token is currently the most bullish crypto token in the space. The price surge will be driven by adoption and not just mere speculation. And adoption is already there but will only now start to gain huge momentum! By the time you have read this blog you will come to see how most other crypto projects lose value in your eyes when you compare it to a project with amazing fundamentals, a project that doesn’t need an “altseason”, driven by mere mindless speculation, to give you nice returns! Most people in the crypto space have never heard of the GET protocol. This is on one side suprising because there are 191.329 wallet holders to be exact. This means that 191.329 people have used the GET protocol, mostly without even knowing it! The focus has always been on building a product that works and where there is demand for. Where other projects have focused and spent their funds on marketing in the crypto space (meaning luring in new investors) GET has neglected that part a bit. Instead they focused their funds on building a waterproof system and acquiring clients who will use the protocol (venues, artists, governments, …). The effect of this is that the price hasn’t been affected by speculation. The list of artists who use GET-fueled tickets is endless and I have honestly lost sight of everyone who uses it. But to give you an example of adoption, here is a list of some of the artists who sell GET-fueled tickets:
Amsterdam Dance Event
Youp Van ‘t Hek
What is the GET protocol and what does it do? The GET Protocol offers a blockchain-based smart ticketing solution that can be used by everybody who needs to issue admission tickets in an honest and transparent way. The goal of GET protocol is to become the worldwide ticketing standard. To put it in simple terms: the ticketing industry is plagued by dishonest players. Not only ticket fraud but also scalping are an enormous problem in the industry. Once a ticket sale starts bots buy up the tickets and later sell them for enormous profits. Fans are sidelined and are forced to buy tickets of their idols for a much higher price. The scalpers, not adding any value in the process, make tons of money at the expense of artists, fans, venues, event organizers, … and everybody who makes the event industry what it is.
This is where GET offers a solution proven to work The tickets issued on the GET protocol are registered on your phone. This means that only the person in possession of the phone also owns the ticket. Every ticket is unique and is based on a QR code that updates itself and rotates to prevent fraud and scalping. The tickets are all registered on the blockchain as a mean of transparency and accountability. This means that fans can check ticket authenticity whenever they want. This is also where the GET token comes in play but more on that later…
GET is currently the best adopted microcap This is a bold statement but it’s not difficult to prove. Whereas other crypto “companies” confuse their investors with a lot of technical words that the average Joe doesn’t even understand and show off with meaningless partnerships, GET is actually changing the ticketing world for the better! At the moment of writing there are 4 ticketing companies that are completely integrated in the GET protocol, and together have sold many GET-fueled tickets! These companies currently run on the GET protocol:
GUTS Runs fully on the GET protocol and has sold over 400.000 tickets.
ITIX Established in 2009 and sells 2 million tickets/year. Is fully integrated in the GET protocol and will start selling GET-fueled tickets soon.
getTicket A new ticketing company in South Korea that will run fully on the GET protocol.
TecTix A Germany based ticketing company that will sell GET fueled tickets with a focus on the sports industry.
Integrating an existing ticketing company is a low investment move (only the GET token is needed) that offers traditional ticketing companies several benefits. That is why I expect many ticketing companies to integrate and GET to scale quickly.
The supply Some people are scared by the big difference in the circulating supply and the total supply. This is an unneccessary fear. The GET supply is made up of 3 portions:
Circulating supply (13.5 million)
Stability Fund (12,6 million): these tokens can never enter the circulating supply. They are used to supply the ticketing companies with GET so they don’t have to buy them directly from the market. The stability fund then buys these supplied tokens from the market to fill itself up. As the protocol shifts to open source the stability fund (together with all the tokens it holds) will be destroyed forever.
User Growth Fund (7,24 million): these tokens are used for discounts to new clients. These tokens should also in principle not enter the circulating supply. Only for marketing purposes and possible exchange listing costs a small portion of these might be liquidated.
This means that the circulating supply as it is now can only, ever, lightly increase for the purpose of growth. With the buybacks and burns being large enough the circulating supply will instead keep decreasing at a swift tempo.
GET in times of COVID19 In May Dutch group Di-Rect sold thousands of tickets for an online concert. They used GET’s technology to use a dynamic price setting. This means that fans were given the option to pay whatever they wanted for a ticket. Whoever paid €20 or more had the chance to win a lottery and be present at the concert. Once the concert starts, whoever bought a ticket, will be able to watch the streamed concert on GUTS’ app. This is yet another proof of the advantages a digital ticket offers. As this was a big succes, the expectation is that more and more artists will make use of GET’s technology. On 27/05 Dennis van Aarssen, The Voice Of Holland 2019 winner, announced that he will also do a livestreamed performance of classic covers and original music on June 7th. All tickets will be issued through the GET protocol. GET also offers several advantages in different areas in the fights against COVID19. The right of access being linked to your mobile makes it possible for potential clients to monitor the number of visitors in real time all the time, to apply an automated seating selection which consideres an appropriate distance between all visitors, queue control, booking of timeslots for museums, shops, parks, beaches, … so overcrowding can be avoided. When an event gets cancelled, whereas with paper tickets it’s sometimes impossible to track who owns the ticket at the current time, with GET’s technology the event organizer can, with one click, choose to make a refund to the current ticket owner, to communicate with him, to postpone the event, …
What more to expect in the (near) future? There are so many amazing things to come in the very near future so I’ll only focus on a few of them:
Integration with Klaytn
GET-fueled tickets for K-pop
Top tier exchange listing
More focus on marketing in the crypto space
Staking & nodes
GET as an open-source protocol
Integration in Klaytn
Seeing the adoption the GET protocol has, the solution they bring and the enormous potential they have in conquering the ticketing industry, they have been asked by Kakao to join their blockchain “Klaytn”. So GET is an initial service partner of the Klaytn blockchain. “Kakao’s global public blockchain project Klaytn is an enterprise-grade, service-centric platform that brings user-friendly blockchain experience to millions.” The choice for choosing to be an Initial Service Provider of Klaytn is based on two aspects. The first aspect is the fact that Klaytn’s blockchain infrastructure is fully business and integration focused, more than any other blockchain in the market. This results in huge improvements in areas as cost-efficiency, scalability, and data reliability. The second aspect is fueled by the potential of being part of the Klaytn ecosystem. Kakao is a giant in South Korea. GET will bring its adoption to Kakao’s blockchain and Kakao, with its giant network, in return will open many doors in South Korea. A win-win for everyone involved! In 2017 Kakao had more than 220 millions users on their messaging and content platform. The last few years the company has been rapidly expanding in other industry verticals.
GET fueled tickets sold for K-pop stars As mentioned earlier: South Korean ticketing company getTicket will run fully on the GET protocol. They have already deals in line to sell tickets for K-pop stars in their country. K-pop legend Mr. Won-Kwan Jung, as someone who has a lot of connections in the K-pop world, has joined the GET protocol as an advisor. He is an iconic figure and innovator in the world of K-Pop, owing to the fact that he was one of the three original members of SoBangCha, (or ‘Firetruck’ in English) which is regarded as the first K-Pop group to exist in the world. In a survey conducted in 17 countries in 2019, around 37.5 percent of respondents stated that the genre K-pop was “very popular” in their country. The survey found that the popularity of K-pop reaches far beyond South Korean borders. The fact that their idols will be selling GET-fueled tickets hasn’t reached the Korean audience yet. It is still a “public secret”. The news will be released in a directed marketing campaign later this year. You better believe that once the Koreans find out that they’ll be buying GET like hot cupcakes!
Tickets for museums and beaches to be in line with COVID19 restriction measures With the Corona virus still not wiped out but more under control, many countries are lifting restrictions. This needs to be done in a safe and controlled manner. This means avoiding overcrowding. GET’s technology can and will surely help here. GET’s system can do all that is needed now for a safe experience. Whether it’s booking a timeslot for the beach, for a museum,… or even for a shop from your home. The system lets the client monitor everything in real time. Someone can that way for example choose to go when there is less crowd. This all while fully respecting the user’s privacy. The GET sales team has been busier than ever, being in contact with governments, museums, … and the dev team is constantly creating custom made smart ticketing solutions for new costumers. I’m sure we can expect some major announcements in this area soon!
Top tier exchange listings & marketing in the crypto space The team has confirmed that listing on a top tier exchange has already been agreed. They’re just waiting for the right time to announce it, fitting in their marketing campaign. Besides that, a fiat on ramp exchange will list GET in a short timeframe. Many projects invested most of their funds in exchange listings and fake volume, creating artifical demand. These exchange listings are almost always accompanied by paying for a market maker. Once the funds dry up (and we have seen this with many projects) delisting becomes a reality and the funds end up being spent in vain. GET’s exchange listing and marketing campaign aren’t a means to pump the price but have the goal of creating liquidity for the end users (mainly ticketing companies) who will need to acquire a lot of GET from the open market in the short future.
Expansion in several other countries GET’s business developer Sander: "I am reached out by ticketing parties all around the world on a daily basis. The main challenge is to vet these parties. The goal of GET Protocol is to be the worldwide standard of digital admission rights and to get there we need to stay extremely lean and flexible in order to scale well. In that sense we need to be 100% convinced the parties we partner up in this phase have a very high potential of becoming a big player in their respective geographies. From the onboardings we currently experience, we learn to speed up onboarding processes upcoming year." And when asked how many tickets he expects to be sold in the near future and how many ticketing companies he expects to run on the GET protocol in 5 years time: "Along the journey, we here at GET and GUTS learned quite a few things. One of them is avoiding to publicly announce ticket sale estimates as the chances are that we shoot ourselves in the foot with that. If we don’t meet our estimates, life sucks and the community will let us know which is fine and rightful, but to be honest for GET nothing to win. If we meet our goal, it is okay but even then some people members manage to say they hoped for even better. In that sense, whatever we do, we can’t do well enough on that front, so I am reluctant about giving specific numbers (and I don’t have a crystal sphere either!). That being said, regarding the amount of ticketing companies in 2025, I expect many, in many countries. It’s a matter of time that we can easier offer our products in a whitelabeled manner. Only this week we got requests for more information about our services from Germany, Paraguay, Mexico, UK and Italy and Australia. This certainly doesn’t always mean a ticketing company could lead out of such a request, but the interest is certainly there. If we keep on doing what we do now, I believe we can boost ticketeers and event organizers around the world pretty soon and let them issue fully digital and blockchain registered tickets, all processed by GET Protocol. If more ticketing companies are onboarded, the amount of ticket sales processed by the protocol will grow exponentially." Knowing how GET’s team has always been very careful with their promises, I take such statements very seriously. If the past has taught me anything: they’re probably making an understatement. So expect GET to spread its wings in many regions around the world and take the ticketing world by a storm!
Staking & nodes GET’s blockchain developer Kasper Keunen has announced that a staking model is being developed. This means that you’ll be able to stake your GET. In return a portion of the ticketing fee will be rewarded to those stakers and nodes. So see it as a passive income. You sit down, relax and see it grow exponentionally as GET conquers the ticketing world :)
The end goal is to be an open source protocol The endgoal of the GET protocol is to become open source. There will be a governance model where changes to the protocol will be determined by GET token holders. That’s why I expect ticketing companies to acquire a lot of GET in time as their revenue relies on the direction of the protocol. GET will have a role as governance for the project as a whole. Such a role for the token is the most natural in a fully open-sourced environment of the protocol(currently not the case, yet). As then governance by stakeholders (ticketing companies) with a serious stake in the game as their ticketing revenue relies on the direction/quality of the code to be on point. As of yet, we do not really assign too much fundamental value to this role for the token (we barely mentioned it actually) as it is still a bit early for it to have serious merit. So pushing that value of the token now would be a bit false advertising. As we onboard more and more ticketing companies we will develop the governance of the token role more and more!
Why the GET token is set to explode Now that I’ve covered what the GET protocol is and where it’s going, it’s time to dig deeper in the token. And I have to say that I’ve never been more bullish on anything in my life. This for the simple reason that usage will drive the price to insanely high levels (where speculation isn’t even needed).
Tokenomics As mentioned above: to have full transparency and accountability (both missing links to make the ticket industry fraud- and scalpfree) all tickets sold are registered on blockchain. You can compare GET to a gas that is needed to fuel the protocol (every state change of the ticket needs to be registered — for which GET is needed). So for every ticket sold GET is bought back from the open market and burned forever.
A single state change cost €0,07 in Q1 2020
There are minimum 4 state changes per ticket
This means that a minimum of €0,28 worth of GET is needed for every ticket sold
In Q1 of 2020 107 059 GET were burned (proof of burn: ");
It is projected that at least 50% of all GET will be burned by 2022
At the moment of writing €161.944 worth of GET have been bought from the exchanges and burned forever (all triggered by adoption and ticketing companies needing the token).
GET’s valuation in the (near) future Bear in mind that this is my own expectation, based on big changes in supply and demand that I will try to explain below. Also keep in mind that I’m not a financial advisor and nothing is guaranteed in the crypto space! But I will try to explain why I personally believe that GET will be trading at 10€ per token and more in the near future. As time goes on and more tickets are sold, the demand for GET will keep increasing while the supply will keep decreasing. You don’t need to have a PhD in economics to understand what this will do to the price!
What kind of demand/buybacks can we expect? As explained above: for every ticket sold at least €0,28 worth of GET is needed by the ticketing companies. Most of this GET is bought back from the exchanges (the money to do this is included in the ticket fee). Some GET is supplied by the “user growth fund”. This is a fund created to give potential new customers a discount. This is done by subsidizing them a portion of their need for GET so these new customers don’t need to pay the full price immediately. Bear in mind that as time goes by this fund will dry up and all the GET that is needed will from that moment on be bought from the exchanges. Since the buybacks are based on the amount of tickets issued by the protocol, to calculate what kind of buybacks we can expect in the future we need to look at the ticket sales. As mentioned before there are 4 ticketing companies using the protocol right now (GUTS, ITIX, TecTix and getTicket). Below I will make an estimation of what to expect from them. GUTS has sold over 400k tickets. From just the deals already signed, over a million tickets would have been sold in 2020. Due to Covid19 most events had to be posponed (not cancelled). In the meanwhile the GUTS sales team hasn’t been idle and has atracted many more customers. This means that the 1 million tickets number is probably even on the low side. But let’s say a minimum of 1 million tickets will be sold the first year where all events will be allowed again. This means that at least €280.000 worth of GET will be needed in that year. ITIX sells 2 million tickets a year on average. Once fully integrated they will thus need at least €560.000 worth of GET on a yearly basis. TecTix, as a new ticketing company, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers they’ll be running at the start. But given the expertise of the TecTix team I think 200.000 tickets is a safe bet to start with. That would put us on at last €56.000 worth of GET needed/year. And finally getTicket, a ticketing company based in South Korea. In their case it’s also difficult to make a prediction because they’re new and we have no previous data to rely on. But judging from the comments made by the team that “everything is bigger in Korea” and that they’ll be selling stadium concerts for K-pop stars (just one concerts can mean over 100.000 tickets sold) I think it’s safe to say that they’ll be selling at least 1 million tickets/year. That would bring their need for GET to at least €280.000 a year. So if we put this together the 4 ticketing companies will need over € 1 million worth of GET on a yearly basis. Bear in mind that more ticketing companies will keep joining and the existing ticketing companies will keep growing, taking away marketshare from ticketing companies that can’t offer all of the advantages mentioned before. Based on all of this I, pesonally, would say that €5 million/year in GET buybacks by 2023 is not an unreasonable prediction.
What can we expect from GET’s supply? Demand for a token means nothing if the supply is unlimited. The best example of the importance of the supply is the recent Bitcoin halvening that got everyone excited. Before the halvening around 1800 BTC were mined every day. Let’s say that at current prices this was around $16 million worth of BTC per day. The miners obviously have to sell a large portion of this to cover their costs. So even if there are no other sellers, a large number of BTC has to be bought from the market every day just to keep status quo of the current price. Halvening basically means that the speed at which the supply increases will be halved (900 BTC mined on a daily basis instead of 1800). The supply of BTC will still continue to increase, only at a slower tempo. Scarcity should be the ultimate goal when investing in utility tokens. With GET’s utility token things are different: every GET bought by a ticketing company will be burned. Contrary to BTC the supply of GET will thus continue to decrease as time goes on, removing the stacks of those eager to sell. This is not a dig at Bitcoin by the way as I’m a fan. Just highlighting the advantage an adopted utility token with good tokenomics has over “the king”. I hope you now understand my expectation that the price will explode. Many holders will obviously not be willing to sell at current prices with such an increasing demand. As the price is determined by many factors and we don’t know what the price will do exactly, it’s not possible to pin down the exact supply in the future. We do know that it will keep decreasing at a swift tempo unless the price goes parabolic.
Finding the equilibrum for the price The demand for GET will keep increasing through adoption and the supply decreasing as the used GET are destroyed forever The equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity occur where the supply and demand curves cross. The equilibrium occurs where the quantity demanded is equal to the quantity supplied. If the demand increases and the supply decreases then the price will rise until it finds a new equilibrium. Putting a correct marketcap valuation on a crypto project is an extremely difficult task. With traditional companies we can for example rely on the revenue, profit, dividend payments, … to estimate what the company is/should be worth. In most countries a 5% rental yield is considered a good investment. Of course it’s not fully comparable as these buybacks don’t automatically put money on your account. But they do increase the price and destroy the supply. So I think it’s in a way reasonable to extrapolate this 5% yield to our case. Having explained why I expect atleast €5 million in yearly buybacks by 2023, that would mean the marketcap should be around €100 million (5% = the buyback of €5 million multiplied by 20). The current circulating supply of GET is around 13,5 million. The expectation is that the burning mechanism will destroy more than half of that by 2023 (this takes into account an increasing price of the GET token). So let’s round it up to 5 million GET remaining. A marketcap of €100 million with a supply of 5 million GET would mean a price of €20/GET. This would be an increase of 6566.67%. Of course these numbers are not set in stone and merely a prediction but if you’ve been reading this blog you have come to understand why I am extremely bullish on the GET token. I have completely taken the speculation factor or an “altseason” or “fomo” out of the equation and only focused on a price increase driven by an increasing demand and decreasing supply! So the focus is on an organic price growth. Another great thing about holding a token with mass adoption and guaranteed buybacks is that I don’t have to worry about the price. As the buybacks are a guaranteed thing, the lower the price of GET the more GET is bought back and destroyed forever. So even a price decrease, as contradictory as it may sound, is bullish for longterm holders!
Why Global Deflation May Not Be Bad News for Bitcoin
Contrary to expectations, bitcoin could see a positive performance during a possible bout of global deflation if it acts not just as an investment asset, but as a medium of exchange and a perceived safe haven like gold. The top cryptocurrency by market value is widely considered to be a hedge against inflation because its supply is capped at 21 million and its monetary policy is pre-programmed to cut the pace of supply expansion by 50 percent every four years. As such, one may consider any deflationary collapse as a price-bearish development for bitcoin. Talk of deflation began earlier this month after the U.S. reported massive job losses due to the coronavirus outbreak. The prospects of a deflationary collapse have strengthened with this week’s oil price crash. “The oil price rout will send a deflationary wave through the global economy,” tweeted popular macro analyst Holger Zschaepitz on Tuesday. Read more: First Mover: What the Oil Price Collapse Means for Bitcoin’s Halving Valuation Cash typically becomes king during deflation because the drop in the general price levels boosts the monetary unit’s purchasing power, or the ability to purchase goods and services. “Unlike inflation, when people try to get out of the dollar because it’s losing value, during deflation people are more comfortable with the dollar because its value is going up,” said Erick Pinos, ecosystem lead for the Americas at the public blockchain and distributed collaboration platform Ontology. The rush for cash, however, may not have a substantially negative impact on bitcoin’s price because deflation would also boost the purchasing power of the cryptocurrency. “While the price per coin may stagnate during a period of aggressive economic deflation, the inherent buying power of the currency will actually rise, possibly quite significantly,” said Brandon Mintz, CEO of the bitcoin ATM provider Bitcoin Depot. As time goes on and people become more comfortable with digital assets, the average person begins to see Bitcoin as a legitimate viable alternative to gold.** The uptick in the purchasing power will likely draw greater demand for bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency is already used as means of payment. “Hundreds of thousands of businesses, brands and merchants do accept the ‘digital gold’ as payment, and thousands more every day are realizing the benefits of diversifying their revenue stream and accepting bitcoin as payment for their goods and services,” said Derek Muhney, director of sales and marketing at Coinsource, the world’s leader in Bitcoin ATMs. Moreover, the cryptocurrency’s appeal as a medium of exchange is likely to continue strengthening with the growing prevalence of technology in consumers’ everyday lives caused by the coronavirus pandemic. ##Digital gold ## Ever since its inception, bitcoin has been dubbed “digital gold.” Like the yellow metal, the cryptocurrency is durable, fungible, divisible, recognizable and scarce. Both assets share features that fulfill Aristotle’s call for a currency to be practical and functional. Bitcoin has actual utility as the means of payment, which gold lacks, according to Coinsource’s Muhney. “As time goes on and people become more comfortable with digital assets, the average person begins to see Bitcoin as a legitimate viable alternative to gold. Thus, it’s reasonable to assume that during a period of deflation bitcoin would perform well like gold has in the past,” said Erick Pinos, America’s ecosystem lead at the public blockchain and distributed collaboration platform Ontology. Read more: Looking for a Safe Haven Digital Asset? Try Gold Hence, gold’s performance during the previous bouts of deflation could serve as a guide for bitcoin investors. Historical data shows gold performs well during deflation, which includes a sharp rise in financial stress and increased risk of corporate defaults; highly levered companies tend to go bust during deflation because their revenues fall while their debt service payments remain the same. Of course, gold’s shine is particularly bright during periods of inflation as well. As in periods of sizable deflation, inflation brings a set of price distortions that shake-up income statements and economies. A commonly-used measure of stress is the “Ted spread” or the difference between the three-month U.S. interbank rate and the three-month T-Bill rate. Ted SpreadSource: St. Louis Fed Research“Massive spikes in the Ted spread in the 1970s were accompanied by a sharp rise in gold. The Ted spread also rose sharply in the early 1980s; in 1987 in the wake of the stock market crash and during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 – both also periods of stronger gold prices,” according to Oxford Economics’ research note. Gold’s performance in stress periodsSource: Oxford ResearchThe real or inflation-adjusted price of gold rose an average 33 percent per annum in the 1970s, 18 percent in 1980s and 15.8 percent in 2000. Underscoring all of the scenarios is that a sudden rise in economic stress usually fuels a global dash for cash, forcing investors to sell everything from stocks to gold. However, once economic uncertainty starts settling, people again start looking for safe havens. “During the Great Recession, while gold initially declined alongside other equities, it found its footing and rallied faster than stocks recovered,” Ontology’s Pinos told CoinDesk. The Ted spread spiked as high as 4.6 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in August 2008. Gold fell from $920 to $680 per troy ounce in the August to October period, as investors treated the yellow metal as a source of liquidity, but still ended that year with 5.5 percent gains. More importantly, it rallied by 24 percent in 2009 and went on to hit a record high above $1,900 in 2011. Read more: First Mover: Bitcoin Jumps as Fed Assets Top $6.5T and Traders Focus on Halving The yellow metal’s recent price gyrations suggest history may be repeating itself. As the Ted spread rose from 0.11 to 1.42 in the four weeks to March 27, gold fell from $1,700 to $1,450 yet is now trading near $1,725 per ounce, having hit a 7-year high of $1,747 ten days ago. Bitcoin, too, was treated as a source of liquidity last month, as evidenced from the near 40 percent drop to levels under $4,000 seen on March 12. Since then, however, the cryptocurrency has risen by nearly 85 percent to $7,500. If gold’s historical data and the recent market activity is a guide, then the path of least resistance for bitcoin appears to be on the higher side. ##Unprecedented stimulus to undermine fiat currencies ## Both the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have unleashed massive amounts of liquidity into the system over the past few weeks to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Notably, the Fed is running an open-ended asset purchase program and its balance sheet has already risen to record highs above $6.5 trillion. Meanwhile, central banks from New Zealand to Canada have slashed rates to zero and have recently announced bond purchase programs. What’s more, the amount of fiscal stimulus announced by 22 countries in March is equivalent to 75 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP), according to JPMorgan. However, most governments and central banks appear to have run out of ammo. Hence, if the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread or leads to corporate defaults, investors may lose trust in traditional finance and look for alternatives like bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. Moody’s Analytics recently warned of the heightened risk of corporate defaults in the oil and gas sector across the globe, and weakness in entertainment and leisure giving way to pressure on consumer durables. “The willingness to fight deflation should bode well for bitcoin,” said Richard Rosenblum, head of trading at GSR. Meanwhile, Ashish Singhal, CEO and founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinswitch.co, said, “In a deflationary scenario, the chances of negative interest rates are high, and users would want to move their existing assets into more stable assets like bitcoin to prevent loss in their asset value.” Interest rates are already set below zero across Europe and in Japan and are hovering at or near zero in other advanced countries. Further, with central banks willing to do whatever it takes to defeat deflation, the real yield or inflation-adjusted returns on bonds are likely to remain negative or meagerly positive at best. As a result, zero-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin may attract more buyers. Bank of America’s analysts noted earlier this week that the stimulus frenzy amid the coronavirus pandemic would put pressure on the currencies and send gold to $3,000 by October 2021. While bitcoin could perform well during deflation, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have seldom tracked macro developments on a consistent basis in the past. “Blockchain-based currencies are really their own beasts,” said Bitcoin Depot CEO Brandon Mitz. DisclosureRead MoreThe leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. Source: https://thedailyblockchain.news/2020/05/24/why-global-deflation-may-not-be-bad-news-for-bitcoin/
https://i.imgur.com/oucavJo.jpg A) This is a work in progress. (trying to make this neater and add things that people post) These things have been collected from forums / posts in various places (official forums, reddit groups etc)..and are here to be sifted through and examined to see which are true and which are not. Anyone is welcome to comment both agreement or disagreement. B) ANY CORRECTIONS please send a message and reference the lie number *** I want to remove false info ASAP*** Or make a post in this thread. If there is anything in this list that shouldn't be here, it will be removed. C) If you'd like me to add a lie, PLEASE make a post in this thread! Include something like ADD THIS LIE and make a short description d) ASM /Allsportsmarket / the company means any or all of the proxies and identities of CWH , NSEI, Sportshares.net etc ------------------------------------ A while back, Chris claimed people on reddit were "lying" and that he would respond "point by point" to any "lies" told by redditors. I have begun to compile a list of all of Chris' lies from various sources.
To Chris Rabalais / Allsportsmarket.com : You are more than welcome to respond "point by point". Please include a lie number...and respond and explain how it isn't a lie....
Lies of Chris Rabalais
1)This is and was an investment He has always claimed this was an investment, and still does. He claims you will get a return...yet from the other side of his mouth, he makes sure to mention that this is a "donation." Not one of us would have donated to him without the chance of a return / profit. None of us. This was a donation....to Chris Rabalais...NOT an investment. Still to this day when askign for money he makes suree to put in DONATION but then out of the other side of his mouth he claims you will get a return..or profit..and says you are an investor / insider etc.....This is NOT an investment. This is a DONATION to a very inefficient "charity" claiming you will someday see a "return" on it. 2) Investors into ASM would get a return on their investment -- profit from it He is still promising people a return...many people show a 'profit' on their account statement but are unable to cash out. Unable to withdraw etc...Chances are, If you have made a "profit" from this on paper, you cannot withdraw it. 3) He was in the process of registering the company shares with the SEC The SEC has stated point blank he has taken NO STEPS to register the company shares. It is in the complaint. 4) The company shares were ABOUT to be registered, and once they did...they would have even more value and we would miss out unless we bought in Not only did he say it was in process, he claimed many times they were very close to getting the shares registered and when they did, they would have more value..and investors would be sorry if we didn't jump in on this "rocketship". 5) Chris knows how to get the shares registered with the SEC or has any clue what he is doing in terms of registering the shares According to the SEC , Chris Rabalais has no idea HOW to even get the shares registered...and that is in their complaint as well. Meanwhile for years Chris was claiming he knew what do do to get the shares registered. 6) "This may be the last chance to jump on this great opportunity" How many times have we all heard this lie? This or that program is ending....you'll never get another chance at giving money to Chris Rabalais again...but then shockingly...there's another even better offer in a couple days/weeks... 7) If you don't give X amount of money right now , the lights might suddenly go out on ASM..and you'll lose your "investment" Another lie they tell is that if you don't give money, they will go out of business and you will "lose your investment". Bullcrap , they're not shutting off their free money machine....until someone MAKES them. Oh and you have no investment. Two lies for the price of one. 8) This is not a ponzi scheme Chris has addressed the ponzi issue only VERY briefly over the years. He recently claimed it isn't a ponzi because the "last guy in can still make money" but that would require MONEY coming in from others...so he gets around the truth by omitting that its not the "guy" its the "last money in " which is nearly the same thing... the people who put their money in last will lose....that is a ponzi. The Judge in the Seth Leon case said so...and I hope another judge says so soon. (See here: https://www.reddit.com/ASMEunfiltered/comments/e61nya/summary_of_the_seth_leon_case_with_update/ ) 9) The sports shares have value Chris claims they have value because they area "claim on future dividends" which is a lie. That is not any definition of real or intrinsic value...and even if it was (it isn't, IMO) the claim on future dividends is a LIE because every penny of that future dividend money relies on new money coming into the market...which is a ponzi...which is valueless 10) You would be able to cash out (sell your holdings, pay off your bonus margin and keep your profits) He changed the rules when the market started imploding. For years he promised investors they could sell their shares, pay off our margin and take our profits. No one would've bought in if they thought they could never do this. Even after he froze people's ability to cash out...he kept claiming that we would be able to soon...and urged people to buy more margin because all of the profits would be able to be kept. 11) Chris would stop selling margin Recently, there was a conference call where key members of the team called for an end to the margin offers..NOT because they were a scam (they are) but because it was no longer possible to ignore the implosion of the pilot market and the collapse was being blamed on margin....Chris agreed to end margin and made announcements to this end. In a short time, he realized that promising people money on margin profit was his only revenue...so he HAD to start selling margin again...He knows it is worthless, promised to stop selling it....and lied. 12) Different celebrities, politicians, business people were about to come on board and help us XFL (paul has contacts with them!!), PHIL COLLINS' WIFE!, Mark Cuban, Jon Bon FUCKING Jovi, Roger Goddell, Snoop Dogg, Brian Austin Green, Trump (speaker at zero club), Labron James, meetings with MLB people, Jack MA / Alibaba.......god knows how many other names this guy drops as potential people who are going to help or who we are 'reaching out' to in order to get them to help us. (help me add to this list) 13) ASM would have a "liquidity event" and be able to make money off of our company shares There was going to be some liquidity event where we could sell our company shares to other investors...of course it never happened. 14) The new york times ad was going to be about ASM or helping our investment There was NO MENTION of ASM or AllSportsMarket in the new york times ad and it didn't do a single thing to help ASM become a legitimate company. The only thing it did (from memory) was bash gambling. 15) The trips to Israel, funded by the investors, were something worthy of doing with the money... Chris bragged and posted pictures of his trips to Israel...but what did they have to do with ASM? How was spending "donations" (investments) for him to go to Israel supposed to help the company? Clearly this was a waste. 16) the Hero club events he goes to (more travel) help ASM in any way whatsoever I have never seen any evidence that spending who knows how much of the investors' money has been wasted on this,yet chris continues to act as if his membership in the Hero Club is a wise way to spend money...I have seen no evidence that the Hero club has done anything bust waste money. 17) donating to ASM is helping anyone or doing anything other than putting money in HIS pocket... Quite simply, Chris "donates" 10% of the money given him, if we are to believe that. So He has given (according to him) 150k+ to a hunger charity. They have (according to Chris) matched this 7x, so the 150k donation has turned into a millionish dollars worth of charity. Sounds good right? Well in doing so, Chris has just wasted 90% of the money. Instead of 150k, had we all simply given our 1.5 million to this same charity....and they matched it 7x...we would have turned our money into 10+ million dollars for charity. So essentially, even by Chris' own numbers...we have wasted 9 million dollars of potential charity....by paying Chris's rent..cars etc.. all so that he can take 90% and give 10% to charity....to me, this is wasteful and we would be better donationg directly to the 7x charity the entire 100% rather than wasting the 90%. 18) The ASM 'real market' was a real money market Chris started the real market to fool us into thinking it was actual money. He later then changed the name to "pilot market" after taking people's REAL money..so he could have the excuse "HEY this is a PILOT market!!!" when you cant withdraw...otherwise why call this a "real" market then suddenly change the name to "pilot"? 19) the ASM pilot market was going to transition with your holdings to a 'regulated' or 'exempt market' and you would be able to keep your profit from the pilot market So it has been promised to us that the pilot (which was the real market) market will transition to another market..where.....where you'll STILL be able to keep your profits...so..guys..KEEP BUYING BONUS MARGIN lol.... 20) If there is a good enough plan, Chris will happily step down in January 2020 and let someone else change the direction of the "company" Chris claims "give him till December" and if no one is happy he will step aside if that's what everyone wants...IF there is a plan he likes..LOL..we will see...but I am guessing he will not. 21) The pilot market is working He has claimed the pilot market is working and proves that ASM is functional...yet the market has collapsed and he has frozen everyone's accounts from withdrawing..or paying off margin..etc...but the real/pilot market has been a disaster. Here is him contradicting himself and admitting that the pilot market does NOT work : https://vocaroo.com/bsbcnHWDF8z . This is an admission thatthe pilot market as it is now is busted and will never work without being completely re-designed (revenue sharing etc). The worst part of this is he KNOWS the pilot market is not working yet he is still selling margin to buy stocks on this market.....that to me is criminal. How can he do this? 22) The learning market is working and proves that the math and numbers are correct and functional Claims have been made the learning market is working..LOL...anyone who has touched the learning market knows it is completely dysfunctional...and not any kind of advertisement or positive experience... 23) Bonus margin has some sort of value other than to put money in his pocket He claims bonus margin has value. It doesn't. Its worthless. If he tries to deny this..ask him why he is selling it if it has no value? Ask him how he plans on turning something with 0 value into something with value. This is the core of his scam right now..selling WORTHLESS bonus margin with no value for real money...which he donates 10% of and the rest goes to expenses...and his salary & rent etc... 24) Chris "had alper" double check the math in 2009 , and the market math is fine.. Oh god...so in one of the videos, Chris claims he had Alper check the math in 2009 and alper told him the numbers work. This is such utter horseshit, and mainly designed to deflect responsibility for the failure of the market..so he can blame it on Alper. Chris knows the math doesn't work. Alper knows the math doesn't work..and Alper & Chris know that margin is worthless...and they know the market is a failure...they have to know this... 25) special clubs like "ASM Black", "Insider programs", "Advisory Councils" etc etc are anything other than him trying to get even more money out of your pocket All of these programs are just designed to get you to give them more money..there is no real benefit to being a member in them. The insider program just basically stopped people from being able to withdraw sooner....who knows what ASM black was..and this advisory council...what was that? Give Chris 100$ to listen to more youtube rants? Ok...whatever new club or council they will come up with next is a bunch of crap designed to make you feel special as you give them your hard earned money. 26) The NDA he sent via email before spamming you with more ads is legally binding We all know the NDA he sent via e-mail was worthless..it was hilarious.....and unenforceable.... 27) They would provide investors with financial documents / audit / detailed information at the end of October 2019 Yeah so will we ever get to see the "audit" ? Doubt it...they are not transparent with any pertinent info. Who is paid what? Who holds what shares? What shares have been granted to who? What money was paid by NSEI to who , and for what? "Seal of transparency" my ass. 28) The SEC filing suit against him could be viewed as a positive in some ways I forget how he worded it but he basically claimed the SEC suit was some sort of opportunity for something positive for him. The one positive thing I can think of is it stopped him from getting more money from suckers... 29) He didn't "really" lose the case against Seth Leon He made all kinds of excuses and claims the only reason he lost against Seth Leon is because Seth Leon sent the papers to an old address....LOL (see here: https://www.reddit.com/ASMEunfiltered/comments/e61nya/summary_of_the_seth_leon_case_with_update/ ) Make NO mistake..Chris LOST the case. The court found "AMPLE EVIDENCE" of fraud by Chris Rabalais. 30) It was Trump's fault (Govt shutdown) that he didn't get paperwork done with the SEC LOL...I hope this is what he tells the Judge 31) It was Jason's fault that "a letter" wasn't sent to the SEC regarding the NRHL Blame it on a guy who doesn't work for the company any more... 32) It is alper's fault the math/numbers don't work because Chris asked alper to "check the numbers" in 2009 Blame this on Alper.....when he has known for YEARS the numbers do not work 33) there were "saboteurs" who tried to wreck the "deal" with NRHL, who came from reddit..*but luckily they saved the deal! Remember the saboteurs? remember how they "saved" the deal with the NRHL? Remember how the NRHL was going to be huge for ASM? Yeah none of these things were true....MAYBE a guy (gregson?) tried to contact the NRHL to find out if they were even real.. but NO ONE thought the NRHL was going to be a good thing..and NO ONE wanted to transition their money to a market led by roller derby..because it was and is a stupid idea. 34) There were lawyers (zero club? friends?) who were going to help with the SEC defense for free Chris had an army of lawyers, some of the best in the country and who had never lost...but yet he had to beg the court for a free lawyer because he can't get a lawyer to represent him...LOL 35) "secured by blockchain" - Chris claims this tech is in use now but what is it exactly other than bullshit? On one of his latest videos he claims the blockchain technology is protecting the ASM market right now...BS. There is no technology that I have seen. There hasn't been anything said about what this even is or does. Ace hasn't even been heard from since around August has he? They can't even get an android app...the blockchain bullshit is just more jargon and buzzwords...trying to get you to give them money...there is nothing behind this "secured by blockchain" trademark...other than words...otherwise why not explain exactly what it is, and how it works ..etc... 36) Chris is going to counter sue the SEC and prove that he is a legitimate business LOL.. with his free lawyer? 37) All cryptocurrencies are a SCAM Notice he screams and cries FRAUD at many things, but he is a fraud himself. Typical tactic...accuse others of what you are doing. Also, there is some real value in some cryptos, like bitcoin...unlike a sports share on ASM. Its called 'proof of work' ...that has real value that can even be measured..by electricity use, processing power etc...I am not arguing it has a lot of value, or even that it is as valuable as the price....but it is above zero, unlike a share in a sports team on ASM. I'm also not an expert nor to I condone investing in crypto... 38) Gambling is more of a problem than ASM / NSEI Again, he screams and cries about how dirty Gambling is...but at least legal gambling is regulated, and you have a chance to win. Unlike ASM... 39) They were working on an Android app , and needed donations for it One of the reasons I donated early on was because of seeing the IOS app, and the promises of making an android app.In fairness this might not have been a lie....but if theyre not going to make an android app , then say so. 41) They lied by omission and did not tell investors about the SEC suit until August 2019 So someone else came and announced the SEC lawsuit on the reddit forum in August 2019. There is some strong evidence that Chris knew about this in April 2019 or even earlier like maybe Oct 2018...and if he knew about it before it was announced , then he witheld this information from all of us.. 42) The NFL / MLS "Deals" We very nearly had a deal with the NFL and MLS...or have / had a chance to make deals with them...its all bullshit. The guy cant even make a deal with roller derby leagues...and we are expected to believe he is making deals with major leagues? 43) Wefunder / Crowd Funding We started the process to sell shares through we-funder....but they turned us down. Guess what Chris "forgot" to tell us all? THE REASON they turned us down...because ASM / CWH doesn't pass the "smell test"? What was the reason? It seems like maybe the reason was the UNREGISTERED SECURITIES? I mean there had to be a reason..what was it? 44) Share Buyback They were going to buy back company shares from investors....and at times stated the shares were so valuable they would gladly buy them back for X amount because they were sure to go up in price...but when push comes to shove they NEVER will buy this worthless junk back......even for 1 penny. A lot of the 'tyes men' have stated they would also buy shares back from unhappy investors but of course they never do this in reality. 45) Telling the truth, even if it is harmful to Chris / ASM is some type of Slander or Libel Chris would like you to think that calling him out on fraud and lies is some type of "libel" or "slander" but as anyone knows...telling the truth is not slander or libel. He is trying to scare people from telling the truth. Blowing the whistle on his fraud is NOT slander or libel. Period. He is the CEO of a company that he sold shares of stock in, fraudulently. He must and will be held accountable. 46) The market cap number is a legitimate indicator of the validity of ASM Chris love to throw around market capitalization numbers (4 Billion LOL) as if they mean anything at all or indicate that this market is healthy. They include the learning market (fake money) and the margin (also fake money). If you subtract the learning market, the bonus margin, and the money "used" by chris for data, rent, cars etc...you have pretty much zero market cap in reality. 47) ASM has a way of checking if an investor is accredited: See here: https://www.reddit.com/ASMEunfiltered/comments/eacs69/new_lies_regarding_searching_for_for_accredited/ . In my understanding , one of the ways (in some cases) un-registered securities can be sold is if it is to an "accredited" investor. The SEC has said Chris has no means of checking this. I would personally believe the SEC at this point....and I will count this as a lie until it is proven that Chris / ASM actually does have a way of legitimately checking accreditation. 48) The reason Chris withheld the fact the SEC was investigating him and suing him was because the SEC told him he couldnt tell us. BULLSHIT. In the audio Chris makes absurd claims that he couldnt tell "investors" of his problems with the SEC because they told him not to talk about it. Yet meanwhile he kept taking money from investors as if everything was fine..KNOWING that trouble was brewing and KNOWING that the shit was going to hit the fan. Show me a letter by the SEC that says he can't warn his investors of an impending action by them SHOW IT TO US. If you show this to us, I'll remove this lie. It doesnt make any sense because the SEC exists to protect us from predators like Chris , so why would they tell him he cannot warn us of problems with the SEC????? MAKES ZERO SENSE. Does not pass the smell test. This is a lie by omission..taking our money , pretending things are fine....but KNOWING problems are coming. The bottom line: Chris didnt say SHIT about this anywhere that I know of until AFTER it was posted publicly that the lawsuit was filed...I heard about this online before it was ever mentioned by chris in any conference call or statement by him. 49) Not sure if this is technically a "lie" or not but the guy / ASM has at least 10 twitter accounts...here are a few of them: 1) https://twitter.com/AllSportsMarket 2) https://twitter.com/rabalais_cva 3) https://twitter.com/asmclients 4) https://twitter.com/thesportsvote 5) https://twitter.com/SportsFolios 6) https://twitter.com/MySportsWiki 7) https://twitter.com/chrisrabalais 8) https://twitter.com/NuSportsEconomy 9) https://twitter.com/ASMFreeApp 10) https://twitter.com/ASM_Advisor (not 100% on this one but it looks fake) ..etc..... It looks as if this one: https://twitter.com/ASMFreeApp has a bunch of bots or paid 'farm' followers. So, while not a 'lie' exactly...very odd and shady behavior. 50) In the "Investors Q& A" found here: https://tinyurl.com/spbznmf They failed to disclose the Seth Leon case, the failed attempt at bankruptcy discharge of the fraud debt, and failed to disclose the debt owed to Seth Leon. So they lied in the sections about Legal Problems and they Lied in the sections about Debt. This is in a Q&A involving potential ionvestors so they are lying to potential investors about the risks. 51) Chris will "fact check" and respond to every accusation made against him and prove that these things are lies told by "known liars" https://i.imgur.com/HaGfekN.jpg So a couple of weeks ago, Chris said he would fact check all of the "lies" told about him...so I thought I would do him a big favor and make a huge list. His claim was that everyone saying all of these things are "known liars" and none of these things is true. He says they are all bogus "claims" made by "liars." He said he would refute these"claims." Well guess what asshole? Every songle person reading this is probably a victim of yours, and they KNOW all of these things aren't "claims" ... they are facts. I have done my best here to stick to things that are universal..that we have all witnessed as investors. Now (shockingly) chris refuses to "fact check" any of these "lies." He says he will respond only if you sign your name and send him a private e-mail or make a post on his censored and controlled website where he has to approve any post before it is seen by the public... So I will add this as yet another lie. He will never refute SHIT. He is a thief and a liar. and a con man....and CAN"T refute anything said above. Period. More than likely if anyone posted this list on his forums, he would NEVER allow it to stand....so how is anyone supposed to get this list "fact checked"? The only Known liar here..well..I think we all know who that is... You would think he might want to address these things publicly instead of making people ask via e-mail and leaving a cloud of suspicion for potential investors to see..and maybe he would rather answer one time,rather than a bunch of separate e-mails......but I guess when there are literally no answers to any of these things, the only solution is to try and hide it more...
Not really sure on what flair I should use here, but I think this would do. I love Reddit. Here is a brief history. Remember, the sources have page references, so ignore the little numbers next to words. Thanks! The idea and initial development of Reddit originated with then college roommates Steve Huffman and Alexis Ohanian in 2005. Huffman and Ohanian attended a lecture by programmer-entrepreneur Paul Graham in Boston, Massachusetts, during their spring break from University of Virginia. After speaking with Huffman and Ohanian following the lecture, Graham invited the two to apply to his startup incubator Y Combinator. Their initial idea, My Mobile Menu, was unsuccessful, and was intended to allow users to order food by SMS text messaging. During a brainstorming session to pitch another startup, the idea was created for what Graham called the "front page of the Internet". For this idea, Huffman and Ohanian were accepted in Y Combinator's first class. Supported by the funding from Y Combinator, Huffman coded the site in Common Lisp and together with Ohanian launched Reddit in June 2005. The team expanded to include Christopher Slowe in November 2005. Between November 2005 and January 2006, Reddit merged with Aaron Swartz's company Infogami, and Swartz became an equal owner of the resulting parent company, Not A Bug. Huffman and Ohanian sold Reddit to Condé Nast Publications, owner of Wired, on October 31, 2006, for a reported $10 million to $20 million and the team moved to San Francisco. In January 2007, Swartz was fired for undisclosed reasons. Huffman and Ohanian left Reddit in 2009. Huffman went on to co-found Hipmunk with Adam Goldstein, and later recruited Ohanian and Slowe to his new company. After Huffman and Ohanian left Reddit, Erik Martin, who joined the company as a community manager in 2008 and later became general manager is 2011, played a role in Reddit's growth. VentureBeat noted that Martin was "responsible for keeping the site going" under Condé Nast's ownership. Martin facilitated the purchase of Reddit Gifts and led charity initiatives. Reddit launched two different ways of advertising on the site in 2009. The company launched sponsored content and a self-serve ads platform that year. Reddit launched its Reddit Gold benefits program in July 2010, which offered new features to editors and created a new revenue stream for the business that did not rely on banner ads. On September 6, 2011, Reddit became operationally independent of Condé Nast, operating as a separate subsidiary of its parent company, Advance Publications. Reddit and other websites participated in a 12-hour sitewide blackout on January 18, 2012, in protest of the Stop Online Piracy Act. In May 2012, Reddit joined the Internet Defense League, a group formed to organize future protests. Yishan Wong joined Reddit as CEO in 2012. Wong resigned from Reddit in 2014, after more than two years at the company, citing disagreements about his proposal to move the company's offices from San Francisco to nearby Daly City, but also the "stressful and draining" nature of the position. Ohanian credited Wong with leading the company as its user base grew from 35 million to 174 million. Wong oversaw the company as it raised $50 million in funding and spun off as an independent company. Also during this time, Reddit began accepting the digital currency Bitcoin for its Reddit Gold subscription service through a partnership with bitcoin payment processor Coinbase in February 2013. Ellen Pao replaced Wong as interim CEO in 2014 and resigned in 2015 amid a user revolt over the firing of a popular Reddit employee. During her tenure, Reddit initiated an anti-harassment policy, banned involuntary sexualization, and banned several forums that focused on bigoted content or harassment of individuals. After five years away from the company, Ohanian and Huffman returned to leadership roles at Reddit: Ohanian became the full-time executive chairman in November 2014 following Wong's resignation, while Pao's departure on July 10, 2015, led to Huffman's return as the company's chief executive. After Huffman rejoined Reddit as CEO, he launched Reddit's iOS and Android apps, fixed Reddit's mobile website, and created A/B testing infrastructure. The company launched a major redesign of its website in April 2018. Huffman said new users were turned off from Reddit because it had looked like a "dystopian Craigslist". Reddit also instituted several technological improvements, such as a new tool that allows users to hide posts, comments, and private messages from selected redditors in an attempt to curb online harassment, and new content guidelines. These new content guidelines were aimed at banning content inciting violence and quarantining offensive material. Slowe, the company's first employee, rejoined Reddit in 2017 as chief technology officer. Reddit's largest round of funding came in 2017, when the company raised $200 million and was valued at $1.8 billion. The funding supported Reddit's site redesign and video efforts. Technology and design Underlying code Reddit was originally written in Common Lisp but was rewritten in Python in December 2005 for wider access to code libraries and greater development flexibility. The Python web framework that Swartz developed to run the site, web.py, is available as an open source project. As of November 10, 2009, Reddit used Pylons as its web framework. Reddit was an open source project from June 18, 2008 until 2017. During that time, all of the code and libraries written for Reddit were freely available on GitHub, with the exception of the anti-spam/cheating portions. In a September 2017 announcement, the company stated that "we've been doing a bad job of keeping our open-source product repos up to date", partially because "open-source makes it hard for us to develop some features 'in the clear' ... without leaking our plans too far in advance", prompting the decision to archive its public GitHub repos. While Reddit has continued calling itself open source it has failed to continue updating its code for years. Development forks continue slowly on Reddit-like alternative sites such as SaidIt.net, Ceddit.com, Notabug.io, and Rebbit.kr. Hosting and servers As of November 10, 2009, Reddit decommissioned its own servers and migrated to Amazon Web Services. Reddit uses PostgreSQL as their primary datastore and is slowly moving to Apache Cassandra, a column-oriented datastore.[when?] It uses RabbitMQ for offline processing, HAProxy for load balancing and memcached for caching. In early 2009, Reddit started using jQuery. Mobile apps In 2010, Reddit released its first mobile web interface for easier reading and navigating the website on touch screen devices. For several years, redditors relied on third-party apps to access Reddit on mobile devices. In October 2014, Reddit acquired one of them, Alien Blue, which became the official iOS Reddit app. Reddit removed Alien Blue and released its official application, Reddit: The Official App, on Google Play and the iOS App Store in April 2016. The company released an app for Reddit's question-and-answer Ask Me Anything subreddit in 2014. The app allowed users to see active Ask Me Anythings, receive notifications, ask questions and vote. Product and design changes The site has undergone several products and design changes since it originally launched in 2005. When it initially launched, there were no comments or subreddits. Comments were added in 2005 and interest-based groups (called 'subreddits') were introduced in 2008. Allowing users to create subreddits has led to much of the activity that redditors would recognize that helped define Reddit. These include subreddits "WTF", "funny", and "AskReddit". Reddit rolled out its multireddit feature, the site's biggest change to its front page in years, in 2013. With the multireddits, users see top stories from a collection of subreddits. In 2015, Reddit enabled embedding, so users could share Reddit content on other sites. In 2016, Reddit began hosting images using a new image uploading tool, a move that shifted away from the uploading service Imgur that had been the de facto service. Users still can upload images to Reddit using Imgur. Reddit's in-house video uploading service for desktop and mobile launched in 2017. Previously, users had to use third-party video uploading services, which Reddit acknowledged was time consuming for users. Reddit released its "spoiler tags" feature in January 2017. The feature warns users of potential spoilers in posts and pixelates preview images. Reddit unveiled changes to its public front page, called popular, in 2017; the change creates a front page free of potentially adult-oriented content for unregistered users. In late 2017, Reddit declared it wanted to be a mobile-first site, launching several changes to its apps for iOS and Android. The new features included user-to-user chat, a theater mode for viewing visual content, and mobile tools for the site's moderators. "Mod mode" lets moderators manage content and their subreddits on mobile devices. Reddit launched its redesigned website in 2018, with its first major visual update in a decade. Development for the new site took more than a year. It was the result of an initiative by Huffman upon returning to Reddit, who said the site's outdated look deterred new users. The new site features a hamburger menu to help users navigate the site, different views, and new fonts to better inform redditors if they are clicking on a Reddit post or an external link. The goal was not only for Reddit to improve its appearance, but also to make it easier to accommodate a new generation of Reddit users. Additionally, Reddit's growth had strained the site's back end; Huffman and Reddit Vice President of Engineering Nick Caldwell told The Wall Street Journal's COI Journal that Reddit needed to leverage artificial intelligence and other modern digital tools. Logo Reddit's logo consists of a time-traveling alien named Snoo and the company name stylized as "reddit". The alien has an oval head, pom-pom ears, and an antenna. Its colors are black, white, and orange-red. The mascot was created in 2005 while company co-founder Alexis Ohanian was an undergraduate at the University of Virginia. Ohanian doodled the creature while bored in a marketing class. Originally, Ohanian sought to name the mascot S'new, a play on "What's new?", to tie the mascot into Reddit's premise as the "front page of the Internet". Eventually, the name Snoo was chosen. In 2011, Ohanian outlined the logo's evolution with a graphic that showcased several early versions, including various spellings of the website name, such as "Reditt". Snoo is genderless and colorless, so the logo is moldable. Over the years, the Reddit logo has frequently changed for holidays and other special events. Many subreddits have a customized Snoo logo to represent the subreddit. Redditors can also submit their own logos, which sometimes appear on the site's front page, or create their own customized versions of Snoo for their communities (or "subreddits"). When Reddit revamped its website in April 2018, the company imposed several restrictions on how Snoo can be designed: Snoo's head "should always appear blank or neutral", Snoo's eyes are orange-red, and Snoo cannot have fingers. Snoo's purpose is to discover and explore humanity.
Launched in 2009, the price of one bitcoin remained a few dollars for its first few years. The price reached a peak of nearly $20,000 per bitcoin in late-2017 and has since fluctuated quite a bit ... Beginning of 2019. The beginning of 2019 was marked by several historical dates for Bitcoin: on January 3, the community celebrated the 10th anniversary of the creation of the genesis block, followed by a celebration of the launch of the first implementation of network software and, finally, the first Bitcoin transaction in history, sent by Satoshi Nakamoto on January 12, 2009, Hal Finney. A Norwegian man who bought $27 worth of bitcoins in 2009 and forgot about them discovered their value had since shot up – to $980,000 at today’s price. With the current mining reward of 12.5 BTC per block solution, Bitcoin supply is inflating at around 4% annually. This rate will drop sharply in 2020, when the next reward halving occurs . That Bitcoin’s price is rising despite such high inflation (and that it rose in the past when the reward was 50 BTC!) indicates extremely strong demand. The world’s first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is stored and exchanged securely on the internet through a digital ledger known as a blockchain. Bitcoins are divisible into smaller units known as satoshis — each satoshi is worth 0.00000001 bitcoin.
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